“President Xi Jinping noted that China and the United States are faced with two options in the era of global transformations unseen in a century: One is to enhance solidarity and cooperation and join hands to meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity; and the other is to cling to the zero-sum mentality, provoke rivalry and confrontation, and drive the world toward turmoil and division. The two choices point to two different directions that will decide the future of humanity and Planet Earth..”
Chinese Foreign Ministry Summary of President Xi Jinping remarks at meeting with President Biden USA, San Francisco, (16 November 2023)
How the United States of America responds to the newly revealed multipolar world has been a major theme of my writing for one crucial reason. Carl Jung once said that the fate of humanity hangs by a frail thread, the human psyche. The fate of our world today rests on the brittle bones of American Psychos. How will Joe Biden respond to the historical choices presented to the USA by Xi Jinping in San Francisco?
Fragments of the Burning Archive is my live journal of historical writing on how we are to live, now, in this time of crisis, war, peace, ruin and fragile hope.
Read my full story, American Psycho Trips in San Francisco, below after my free weekly glimpses of this changing world with some quality history. This week the full newsletter is open to all subscribers, and paid subscribers will receive a special essay on Monday, The Era of Non-Western Globalisation has Begun.
Just some quick reminders. Tune into my podcast (Spotify, Apple or other platforms). The latest episode discusses what you can do to distinguish between good and bad historical comparisons in discussions of world affairs. Coming up is an interview with historian Marie Favereau on her book, The Horde: How the Mongols Changed the World.
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World Crisis Glimpses
Great Power Rivalry - Fall of the West 2.0
In an English language interview the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov conducted a wide-ranging assessment of many international issues, relations between great states, and the changing balance of power in the world. He remarked that the
“West was calling the shots in the world for more than 500 years, and this era is over.” (Sergei Lavrov)
In some respects Mr Lavrov anticipated my essay, The Era of non-Western Globalisation has Begun, and I will explain how on Monday. If you have not watched Mr Lavrov, I would encourage you to do so.
Indeed, why not do this little test to assess the capability of the leadership of the great states or super-powers of the world (USA, EU, China, India, Russia, as I explained in this video). The Foreign Ministers of the old Western/North Atlantic world are Anthony Blinken (USA) and Josep Borrel (EU). The Foreign Ministers of the non-Western super-powers are Sergei Lavrov (Russia), Wang Yi (China) and Dr S. Jaishankar (India). Take a sample of their performances, speeches and interviews. Ask yourself with an open mind: who sees the world more clearly? Who is most likely to “meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity,” as Xi Jinping said? The Atlanticist era of globalisation is over.
Political Order - 2024 elections may reshape the multipolar world
I discussed the stresses that a series of elections may place on the political orders of the world this week in a radio interview with Hrvoje Moric. You can listen to the full show here, and I will produce an edited version of my segments for my YouTube channel next week.
2024 is looking to be a big year for the political orders of some crucial countries. There are elections in Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and the USA. There were going to be elections in Ukraine too, but that much celebrated hero of democracy, Zelensky, has cancelled them. A full list of scheduled elections is here. These elections will redistribute power, exchange and affiliations around the world.
As I discussed with Hrvoje, the Taiwanese election in January will be crucial, and may set the tone of the USA-China relationship. Will the sentiment of both the public and political elites in Taiwan shift away from the Ukrainian war path of US-sponsored “independence”? Or will the election be a first step towards peaceful political reunion with the mainland? The obstreperous advocate of independence, Lai Ching-te, from the governing Democratic Progressive party, is polling approximately 30 to 35 per cent, but was looking likely to win because of fragmentation of the votes of other candidates. However, this week those opposition parties formed a common front. Those parties support enhanced dialogue with China, and fewer stunts from visiting American politicians. A coalition government will be a first for Taiwan. Let us hope they take the path of comity, and protect themselves from American meddling.
Social Fragmentation - San Fransicko
The first and major outcome of the US-China Summit that President Biden trumpeted was control of America’s illegal drugs problem. Surprised? The Whitehouse readout of the meeting claimed both leaders:
welcomed the resumption of bilateral cooperation to combat global illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking, including synthetic drugs like fentanyl, and establishment of a working group for ongoing communication and law enforcement coordination on counternarcotics issues.
I did not see Xi Jinping discussing this issue. I did see the reports of a concentrated effort by the American authorities to clear the streets of San Francisco of its many homeless camps and open street drug misuse. American society has failed to handle its problem with misused drugs, illegal and pharmaceutical, especially the opiate category that includes heroin, oxycontin and fentanyl. Biden used his media release to play to the insular American public, who want to blame China for the uniquely disastrous opiates problem in America. Michael Shellenberger discussed this tragic brew of government failure, market freedom and progressive fallacies in San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities (2022).
Back in April I wrote in The Derangement of the American Mind,
America has lost its mind in its culture. Its films, universities, newspapers, intellectuals, celebrities, social media and vast ideaplex are travesties of their inheritance. All that is solid transitions into air. The West has been rewilded, with noxious weeds, not natural beauty.
Its society is exploding. Life expectancy is stagnant. Inequality is notorious. Identity hatreds proliferate. Gun violence is licentious. Crime, homelessness, addiction and uncared for mental illness have ruined its cities. Its century-long neglect of basic institutions of social protection is coming home to roost on the streets of San Fransicko.
The social crisis will get worse when the American financial bubble bursts.
In the edited version at johnmenadue.com, the spelling of San Francisco is restored. The editors did not get my reference to Shellenberger’s book. One day I will write more on drug policy, and my years of experience on the front line, but there are some snippets in Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Bureaucrat, if you are interested.
Cultural Renewal - Where are the gentle people of San Francisco?
San Francisco is an urban symbol of the cultural renewal of 1960s progressive America gone wrong. Back in the late 1960s, they sang dreamy songs of peace in drugged, affluent bliss.
If you're going to San Francisco
Be sure to wear some flowers in your hair
If you're going to San Francisco
You're gonna meet some gentle people there
When he went to San Francisco, Xi Jinping did not wear flowers in his hair, but rather a conservative suit. He did not meet gentle people there, but rather resentful, afraid and failing old men. But he did talk over the heads of the dying archpriests of American progressive supremacism, Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken, to any open-minded people left in America. He spoke in the hope those gentle people can let go of the fever dream of the American century, and accept a humbler place in a changing world. President Xi Jinping concluded his speech, Galvanizing Our Peoples into a Strong Force For the Cause of China-U.S. Friendship, delivered at the Welcome Dinner by Friendly Organizations in the United States, with a call for people power for peace.
The passage of time is like a surging river—much is washed away, but the most valuable stays. No matter how the global landscape evolves, the historical trend of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States will not change. The ultimate wish of our two peoples for exchanges and cooperation will not change. The expectations of the whole world for a steadily growing China-U.S. relationship will not change. For any great cause to succeed, it must take root in the people, gain strength from the people, and be accomplished by the people. Growing China-U.S. friendship is such a great cause. Let us galvanize the Chinese and American peoples into a strong force to renew China-U.S. friendship, advance China-U.S. relations, and make even greater contributions to world peace and development.
(Xi Jinping, President of China, 16 November 2023)
Anyone who lives in the West knows the dreams of 1960s San Francisco formed the habitat of our culture over the last 60 years. But some among us can see that this culture is metamorphosing, in some twisted ways, but also in response to influences of the greater world. We have choices of other ways to live if we free ourselves from tired Western identities. The time has come to shed the stiff casing this culture has become, and let the river of history wash it away. And find new flowers to put in the hair of those gentle people there.
World History View
I offer two world history views this week. In this newsletter for all subscribers, I look at the encounters between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at the San Francisco Summit. For paid subscribers, I will post a special essay, The Era of Non-Western Globalisation Has Begun on Monday. Here’s a sneak preview of that essay.
Crises do not change the world. Crises reveal a changed and sometimes diseased world. The world entered a crisis when the war in Ukraine began in 2022 and has entered a new phase with the conflict in Gaza. As the crisis spirals outside any executive control, many pundits are declaring that surely some revelation is at hand. But what is this new world metamorphosing from the empty shell of the post-1945 world?
Subscribe to read the full piece or if you appreciate my writing and would like to help me continue on this journey of offering independent commentary to see the world more clearly, informed by quality world history and my decades as a government official.
American Psycho Trips in San Francisco
“President Xi Jinping noted that China and the United States are faced with two options in the era of global transformations unseen in a century: One is to enhance solidarity and cooperation and join hands to meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity; and the other is to cling to the zero-sum mentality, provoke rivalry and confrontation, and drive the world toward turmoil and division. The two choices point to two different directions that will decide the future of humanity and Planet Earth..”
Chinese Foreign Ministry Summary of President Xi Jinping remarks at meeting with President Biden USA, San Francisco, (16 November 2023)
How the United States of America responds to the newly revealed multipolar world has been a major theme of my writing for one crucial reason. Carl Jung once said that the fate of humanity hangs by a frail thread, the human psyche. The fate of our world today rests on the brittle bones of American Psychos. How will Joe Biden respond to the historical choices presented to the USA by Xi Jinping?
Will America cling to its old view of itself as the indispensable nation, superior to all others, in competition with all others for the only place in the sun? If it does, it will be washed away by the river of history. Or will America, see the course of events and the shape of the newly revealed more equal world, and save its most valuable heritage, its republic and public finances, by letting go of its hegemonic status, by releasing its empire into the surging currents?
Well, it took less than 24 hours to get an answer. President Xi Jinping had not left the country after a notable gesture of good will, long sought by his American host, when President Joe Biden declared, like Bad Grandpa, or an obsessed, vengeful , demented Captain Ahab, that Xi Jinping was a “dictator.” Why? Because his political system is different to America’s.
The reaction of Biden’s long-time aide and Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken was caught on film. He winced. He shook his head. He knew Biden had, in a fit of petulant pique, blown years of effort to restore some stability to the US-China relationship.
The American Psychogeriatric had tripped over his stiff, insular mental habits in San Francisco. China and the world took notice. If Anthony Blinken had true strength of character, he would hand Biden notice of his resignation. But America will likely stumble on.
I heard of Joe Biden’s remarks some hours after watching a video of President Xi deliver his comments at the prequel to the private sessions of the Summit. I already had a presentiment that this Summit would not secure trust. When I watched Biden’s body language and behaviour during Xi’s brief remarks, I thought this man cannot stand any negotiation with his will.
The video is here. Let me provide a time-stamped analysis of my observations of Biden and Blinken’s body language, in part informed by many years watching such meetings between power-figures when I was a very, very minor government official.
First, note some context. The remarks are less than three minutes long. Xi appears to speak, to my ear, in a warm, friendly and confident way. The USA sought this meeting for over a year. China was reluctant to attend given past incidents with the shot down balloon, Biden’s trash talk of Xi, and hegemonic America’s track record of pissing on the hill like the top dog. But they overcame those concerns because the meeting could be crucial to world peace and development. Biden was listening to the remarks of a leader who has led a country of 1.4 billion people for over a decade. They were about to conduct private talks for two hours. The cameras of the world’s media, not just the American controlled media, were pointed at the two men facing each other across a table. What did Joe Biden and his loyal aide Tony Blinken do?
Gesture Analysis of USA delegation at opening of San Francisco Summit
0:07 Biden reaches into his pocket for a pen.
0:14 Biden turns his eyes from Xi to open a black folder on the table and look at some note cards.
0:21 Beside Biden, Blinken notices the fidgeting, rocks back, looks down and assesses his President’s gestures.
0:24 Blinken nods, as if to say, yes, that is the right card.
0:35 Biden fiddles with his pen and note cards as if he is about to take notes.
0:39 Blinken coughs nervously, while Biden rests his hand with a pen on the table. Biden is not looking at Xi.
0:45 Biden marks his notecard with his pen, making circular motions as if he is highlighting a point on the card or writing a few rounded letters.
0:50 Biden flicks his face with his right hand while looking at Xi, and then taps the table with his left hand.
1:00 Biden mutters a word or two to Blinken. Blinken leans away while keeping his eyes on Xi. At this point, Biden is still holding the pen motionless in his right hand, resting on the table.
1:15 Blinken fidgets, looks to his colleague on his right, away from Biden, and nods.
1:20 Biden looks down at the table and moves his note cards with his left hand. At this point, Xi says US and China cannot turn their backs on each other.
1:27 Biden looks down and places his pen on the table. At this point, Xi is saying that conflict between China and the USA would lead to unbearable consequences.
1:28 Biden scratches his face with his right hand.
1:31 Blinken rocks his body and head in small motions back and forth.
1:39 Blinken rocks back and coughs, when Xi says major country competition is not the prevailing trend of the times.
1:45 Treasury Secretary Yellen, to Biden’s left, adjusts her seating position.
1:51 Biden looks down and reaches for his note cards.
1:55 Biden looks away from Xi and reaches forward to some objects on the table.
2:01 Biden adjusts the position of a glass and water bottle on the table without pouring any water. At this point, Xi says both sides should respect each other.
2:05 Biden looks away to move some papers on the table, while placing his left hand over his right hand. At this point, Xi talks about peace and cooperation.
2:08 Biden leans his elbows on the table and brings his folded, clasped hands to his chin. He leans forward slightly. He assumes the praying mantis position.
2:12 Biden breaks this posture and moves his papers. At this point, Xi says US and China need to find the right way to get along.
2:15 Biden picks up his note cards and puts them inside his black folder, while looking away from Xi.
2:25 Biden moves another black book in front of him forward by a few centimetres. He leans forward and again breaks eye contact.
2:29 While still not looking at Xi, Biden picks up a note card and turns it over, face down, and places it 30 centimetres or so away from him, as if it is not needed any more. At this point he is one of only two members of the USA delegation not looking directly at Xi. Xi is saying the leaders of China and the USA have a heavy responsibility for the people of the world.
2:35 Biden flicks through some pages in his black folder, without appearing to settle his eyes on any particular text.
2:40 Biden again leans his elbows on the table, and brings his folded, clasped hands to his chin. He adopts the praying mantis position as Xi deliver his last sentence.
2:49 Biden reaches for another folder, while Blinken squirms uncomfortably.
2:50 Xi finishes his remarks.
There is a classic management training exercise in active listening. Trainee managers are asked to give their full affirming, attention to a partner while the partner speaks for a short period, anywhere between one and five minutes. Many people struggle with it as the egotistical distractions of the mind lead people to want to interrupt, to refocus on their own, often petty concerns and discomforts, and to disregard their interlocutor. Most people can do it, however, with some practice and careful attention.
President Biden ought to do the training. Anthony Blinken must have been thinking from the 14 seconds mark: “Joe, you had one job, listen with respect, but you could not do it.”
Those three minutes of video showed that Joe Biden cannot bear to be spoken to as an equal. He has spent fifty years or more in politics, and is now in a padded cell of make believe. He looks everyday to his magic mirror and cue cards to reassure him that he really leads the most powerful country that has ever existed in the history of the world. He carries cue cards for the simplest actions, and even then has trouble following the script. But worse still his psyche is distorted by habitual disrespect for the world outside America’s flashing silicon gates. American Supremacism has filled his soul, and emptied his mind of the most essential political skill of all. Listening to others.
It was no surprise therefore that he left the diplomatic halls, and, within hours, like a petulant old man who cannot control his psyche, anger, frustration and resentment, blurted out the words that Xi Jinping is a ‘dictator’.
Joe Biden and the American imperial state cannot today conduct even the most basic rite of diplomatic exchange. However Tony Blinken may later comfort his boss about this latest gaffe, this regime cannot perform the simplest of diplomatic courtesies. This bad President and much of the broken imperial state of the USA will eventually be washed away by the surging river of time. Let us hope, after that torrent clears the stables, that a few courageous, virtuous people stay grounded on this earth to relearn the basic skills of diplomacy and the ordinary virtues of governing well.
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