One way to view today’s global conflicts is as the Global Wars of Independence, which contain within them a process of cultural decolonisation. The minds of people around the world are being freed of American hegemony, but for a second time, after an imperfect decolonisation process in the 1945-1980 period. I reflected during the week on the example of Patrick White, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature 1973, and Australia’s own aborted cultural decolonisation in this period. It offers hope for a cultural renewal freed of nation and American empire.
“Patrick White was one of many figures in the 1945-1990 generations who led Australia through a process of cultural decolonisation, very different to that experienced in Africa and Asia, but still a detachment from imperial influence. As the British Empire crumbled, and the complexion of Australian society changed, these generations created institutions and networks that exchanged ideas more freely.
Jeff Rich, Australia’s aborted cultural decolonisation
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Before the world history view, let us peer at seven dimensions of the world crisis: great power rivalry, social fragmentation, political decay, cultural renewal, economy, environment and war.
World Crisis Glimpses
Great Power Rivalry
The contrast between American exceptionalism and modest multipolarity has been on display this week.
On the one hand, the overweening arrogance of American exceptionalism was displayed by Condaleeza Rice, who was the National Security Adviser at the time of the launching of the War on Terror. She is currently the President of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, a sheltered workshop for failed American imperial officials. The last 25 years of disastrous, endless wars have not taught Ms Rice any humility. She portrayed China and Russia as resentful dolts who had formed an “anti-American alliance.” She described most of the BRICS world, and its leading officials, in cheap, insulting terms that merely demonstrated the emptiness and insecurity of American hegemony. Clips have spread virally on social media, and you can watch the full address here.
On the other hand, Kishore Mahbubanni has been widely quoted on social media in a response to a journalist’s question about America’s approch to its rival. He said
“I am really glad you asked that question, because your question captured very well the Anglo-Saxon media’s perception of China and I would suggest to you, very bluntly, there is a distorted perspective of reality.”
Kishore Mahbubanni
He developed these thoughts in a typically diplomatic appeal for America to come back to reality. In America Can’t Stop China’s Rise, he urged American leaders to stop the futile effort to suppress China’s development, and instead pursue a path of diplomacy, dialogue and respectful collaboration.
Initially, this great power collaboration could be focused on areas where both sides have common long-term interests (like climate change, pandemic preparedness, global economic stability, education). When basic levels of trust are established, dialogue and cooperation can be expanded step by step. None of these moves will result in a diminution of American power and standing in the world. Indeed, America’s prestige and standing could well rise as the rest of the world sees America pursuing reasonable policies that are serving both American and global interests. America will remain the most admired country in the world, if it pursues a wiser course with China.
While I do not see America as the most admired country in the world, I do wish they would pursue a wiser course with the rest of the world.
Political Disorder
However, political disorder in the USA and the West do not create conditions for such prudent statecraft.
In the USA this week, the serving House Speaker was removed for the first time in history, and there is an emerging melodrama about government spending. I suspect a political game of pass the parcel is being played to manage the consequences of defeat in war and the looming collapse of Ukraine. Someone in the Biden administration must know NATO and a disintegrating Ukraine cannot sustain the war; so they will shift the blame for collapse onto the withdrawal of support by the Republicans. With the 2024 elections and foreign policy controlled by political hacks, responsible statecraft is nowhere to be seen in the USA.
Meanwhile in Britain, panic is setting in about the failure of its Second Crimean War. Extraordinary provocative statements were made by a junior defence minister and a former defence minister, Ben Wallace. Mr Wallace wrote that the West should upgrade its support for Ukraine, and even send warships into the Black Sea. He urged a 50 per cent increase in military spending for Ukraine, an appeal that was twice rebuffed by PM Rishi Sunak. But Mr Wallace said Russia was about to crack, and Ukraine was on the verge of success in its counter-offensive, despite all the evidence that it has been a catastrophic failure. But if only Western leaders displayed blind faith in the grand dreams of those who stand with Ukraine, then the coming months could be the “beginnings of the battle for Crimea”.
The first Crimean War of 1853-56 had deep consequences for the political order of European empires, and was followed within a decade by the American Civil War. This war exposed the incompetence and aristocratic patronage networks of Britain and Russian empires. Perhaps, we are seeing a parallel today?
The first Crimean War, in which British troops fought in Russian territory in Crimea to control the Black Sea, also had long term consequences for poetry. It is a battle in that war that inspired Tennyson to write, The Charge of the Light Brigade.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
The new six hundred of Western political elites have charged into that Ukrainian Valley of Death for years now, but there are growing signs, including the election in Solvakia this week, that their people, and a few among the elites, have realised that someone has blundered.
Social Fragmentation
Wars strain social bonds, and fray the decent cloth of ordinary virtue. The stereotyped examples are the debauchery of Nazi life in the bunker, or Nero fiddling while Rome burns. The contrast between the glamour of parties and death in the trenches grows too much. This week, three examples of this fragmentation are: former Finnish PM, Sanna Marin; Richard Branson; and receipts that President Zelenszky’s wife spent $1.1 million on Cartier jewellery during Ukraine’s mission to the UN. A week or two ago, we also saw President Macron host King Charles at Versailles Palace in splendid luxury and the company of many stars of media, business and politics. End of empire memes trended on TikTok. The elites of the virtual reality state need to return to earth, before the peasants start rebelling.
Cultural Renewal
Amidst all that bad news at least the Swedish Academy made a wholesome choice in selecting Jon Fosse as the winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature. Fosse is a recovered alcoholic, who admitted himself into hospital in 2013. He has been remarkably prolific, and provided this advice on writing, culture and life to LitHub a year ago.
“I think the best advice I’ve learned from life is to listen to yourself, not to others. Stick to what you have, not to what you want to have or wish you had. Stay close to yourself, to your inner voice and vision and how you want the writing to be.” (Jon Fosse)
Economy
The Multipolarity podcast reports that gold has broken its links with former economic indexes because of the volume of physical gold purchases by central banks around the world. They report this as a sign of dedollarization, or perhaps we might just say a decentred financial world.
Environment
The Multipolarity podcast also reports that, via the Financial Times that stocks in renewables have fallen in price by 20 per cent in a few months. Green markets and environmental policies, which are built on Western economic models, may also need to adjust to the multipolar world.
War
Lastly on war, the Nobel Peace Prize winner is Narges Mohammadi. She is an Iranian activist and author who has been jailed by the Iranian government on charges of breaching national security, including periods of solitary confinement. A brief story from an Iranian source before the Nobel Prize is here. The Norwegian committee that awards the prize described her as a “freedom fighter” against the “theocratic regime” of Iran. This rhetoric may only damage Ms Mohammadi’s case, and it appears to express NATO states’ foreign policy wishes, rather than the aims honoured by Alfred Nobel’s testament for the prize.
There has been a long controversy about the Nobel Peace Prize, including criticism by members of the Nobel family about how the Norwegian state has interpreted the criteria for the award; that is, the promotion of “fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” I wonder if it is not time for Norway to yield the Nobel Prize Committee and for a new committee formed by the United Nations, comprising BRICS, NATO and other states, to award the prize to people who truly turn the world away from Northern Atlantic crusades towards the path of genuine dialogue, diplomacy and peace.
Meanwhile, Americans, like Elbridge Colby, escalate their rhetoric, and appear to be spoiling for a fight with China to prevent “another Ukraine” in Taiwan. They should read carefully the text of Vladimir Putin’s address to the annual Valdai forum. But more on that next week.
World History View
Australian and Global Decolonization 2.0
One way to view the global conflicts is as the Global Wars of Independence, which contain within them a process of cultural decolonization. The minds of people around the world are being freed of American hegemony, but for a second time after an imperfect decolonisation process in the 1945-1980 period. I reflected during the week on the example of Patrick White, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature 1973, and Australia’s own aborted cultural decolonisation in this period. It offers hope for a cultural renewal freed of nation and American empire.
“Patrick White was one of many figures in the 1945-1990 generations who led Australia through a process of cultural decolonisation, very different to that experienced in Africa and Asia, but still a detachment from imperial influence. As the British Empire crumbled, and the complexion of Australian society changed, these generations created institutions and networks that exchanged ideas more freely.
Jeff Rich, Australia’s aborted cultural decolonisation
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