Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the most warlike state of them all?

Governing during a War

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the most warlike state of them all?

Many might imagine Vladimir Putin muttering these words in front of his dressing mirror each morning. But no, the evidence is in. It is more likely to be Joe Biden.

A recent study by Sudita Kushi and Monica Duffy Toft has shown that here have only been two years since 1900 when America has not initiated a military intervention, with the last year being 1974. The article is “Introducing the Military Intervention Project: A New Dataset on US Military Interventions, 1776–2019” Journal of Conflict Resolution (2022). It provides a comprehensive dataset of all U.S. military interventions since the country’s founding. However, proxy wars (such as the USA’s war against Russia) in Ukraine are not included.

Its abstract states:

the US has undertaken almost 400 military interventions since 1776, with half of these operations undertaken between 1950 and 2019. Over 25% of them have occurred in the post-Cold War period.

That is right. The USA is pretty much on a permanent wartime footing, and the pace of military interventions has increased since the end of the Cold War, driven by the unipolar sugar-high and doctrines of liberal interventionism.

You would think that, with all that experience, America would be skilled in the arts of governing during the war. Perhaps they are. There is a certain art to concealing all the blood you have spilled behind the curtain of the modern American theatre state. The politics of war is continued through other means - the media war, economic sanctions, the cultural war waged through Hollywood, Netflix, Facebook and Twitter. Another study published this week documented how the apparent wave of support for Ukraine on social media in the first half of 2022 was engineered by twitter bots.

But perhaps this approach to govern during war by the manipulation of public opinion merely is bad faith. Ultimately, the American imperial elites will need to confront the lack of authority and legitimacy for these wars, just as defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq ultimately exposed the Potemkin villages America and its allies built there.

Governing during a war when you have overwhelming military superiority is also less challenging than when your wars are with peer powers. And the USA and NATO are now engaged in hybrid conflicts with two powers of more equal standing - Russia and China. In these circumstances, to allow a unipolar sugar-high to run the USA’s grand strategy is extremely dangerous.

Let us hope the virtues of restraint and moderation come into play before too long. Governing in war is among the most challenging of arts. It may seem appealing to amplify tactical victories through the PR megaphones. To celebrate glory and courage and the will of the wartime leader. But defeat is a probable outcome, and the real challenge of governing during war is the impossible choice of whether to sacrifice, for certain, many lives in order to accomplish, with much less certainty, cloudy political objectives. These are the difficult dilemmas of governing in war, politics conducted with other means.

Death of Queen Elizabeth II (Britain)

The British monarch has died. With the succession from Queen Elizabeth II to King Charles III the question that I will be watching will be: will support for the highly visible British monarchy wain? Initial actions suggest that the new King does not enjoy the deft touch of his mother. Blundering into domestic and international policy debates does not show temperance or a sound concept of the role of a highly limited, ceremonial monarch. His call for a military-style campaign to save the planet shows a tin-ear and his susceptibility to the temptations of authority. The United Kingdom is likely to confront some difficult times with soaring energy prices, high inflation, and the consequences of its aggressive attitudes towards European security. To add a clumsy king and and an asinine Prime Minister into that mix could spell trouble.

Book Recommendation - Gorbachev, New Russia

I have been reading Gorbachev New Russia to prepare a two-part podcast on Mikhail Gorbachev, his life, his triumphs, his failures and the legacy of perestroika in Russia today. It reminded me that, when thinking about history, nothing quite beats going to the sources. Of course, Gorbachev has an interest in the outcome and in the perception of his legacy. But the book his full of intelligent observations the West might have done weel to listen to more attentively over the last forty years, rather than turning Gorbachev into that B-grade celebrity from the Pizza Hut ad.

Podcast/video Recommendation - The Sugar High of Unipolarity: Why U.S. Military Interventions Increased after the Cold War

The authors of the study of American military involvements that I discussed above have appeared on the Youtube channel of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an American think tank dedicated to promoting artful diplomacy, not brash wars. They discuss the causes and responses to the increased number of military interventions since 1989 with Prof John Mearsheimer. Mearsheimer attributes the increase to unipolar status - there is no balancing and constraining power. There is also a strong path dependency problem. Once in a war, many interests keep America involved and relatively few, in its current political culture, try to find a way out. It is encouraging to see some Americans who call on their political system to govern better the balance of war and peace, and who want to curb the militarised liberal state.

Gift of Literature - Tolstoy Prisoner of the Caucasus and The Death of Ivan Ilyich

I have been reading Tolstoy’s shorter fictions, and have over the last week I read The Prisoner of the Caucasus and The Death of Ivan Ilyich. The first is a poignant reminder of the complex multi-ethnic and multi-faith experience of the Russian mir (мир). The second is a haunting tale of the consequences if one pursues status and pleasure through a career without asking, until it is too late, the fundamental ethical questions.

My Writing World

This week I relaunched my YouTube channel, The Burning Archive. I will be posting videos there progressively beginning with static image repackaged versions of my podcasts. I will make more active posts once I practise a little more in front of the camera.

I made good progress with the final edits of From the Burning Archive, and think I am on track to release this book in early November.

I also released part one of my two-part Gorbachev podcast, including on YouTube.

Work on my writing skills classes is also progressing.

All these things will swing into gear after 4 November. Subscribe to make sure you hear all the news.

Image Credit: Leo Tolstoy 1897, wikimedia commons