Seven Glimpses of the Multipolar World

China, Crisis, Climate, Western Democracy, Empress Zhu, Crisis Again, and Cantos from a Cage

Mar 24, 2023

Each week in my weekly newsletter, I offer seven glimpses, for seven days, of the multipolar world. This week I share glimpses of the history of human interaction with planet earth, no less, and some gems on China, crises, democracy and my own cantos from a cage.

1. Gratitude

I am thankful to Peter Frankopan for his remarkable book on the history of human interaction with the environment. It has given me clarity and courage, given the prospects involved.

2. What I am reading

I finished reading Peter Frankopan, The Earth Transformed: the Untold Story. It is a bracing but brilliant book, and I am doing a YouTube review or introduction to the book next week. It has informed a few of the glimpses of the multipolar world I have shared this week.

It is a fine book that I do recommend so do check out my video that is coming out on Tuesday 28 March (20:00 AEDT). I will share some highlights and insights then.

3. Governing the unruly multipolar world

Well, surely the big event in governing the multipolar word this week was the 3-day Summit of the Russian and Chinese leadership teams in Moscow. Towards the end of the Summit this exchange was filmed as Vladimir Putin escorted his friend Xi JinPing to his waiting car outside the Kremlin.

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast

Xi Jinping: Change is coming that hasn't happened in 100 years. And we are driving this change together. Putin: I agree. Xi Jinping: Please, take care, dear friend. Putin: Have a safe journey!

I reflect on this moment in my podcast this week, 93. How Healthy is Western Democracy? Some views from China. American dominance of the world really began after World War I through Wilsonian diplomacy, financial power, expeditionary military force, and the ideology of Western Civilization. The crumbling of that dominance may be among the changes the Russian and Chinese leaders referred to.

I discuss on the podcast a recent paper, ‘The State of Democracy in the United States: 2022’ published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. You can read it here. It makes the point that democracy is in poor health within America, and American determination to evangelize and to export democracy to the world only creates chaos.

Acceptance of changing political orders is wisdom, and acceptance of many forms of beauty, many kinds of democracy can bring us peace. ‘The State of Democracy in the United States: 2022’ concludes:

Democracy is humanity’s common value; however, there is no single model of political system that is applicable to all countries in the world. Human civilization, if compared to a garden, should be a diverse place in which democracy in different countries blooms like a hundred flowers. The US has American-style democracy, China has Chinese-style democracy, and other countries have their own unique models of democracy that suit their respective national conditions. It should be up to the people of a country to judge whether the country is democratic or not and how to better promote democracy in their country. The few self-righteous countries have no right to point fingers.

Chinese democracy may not suit us all. Indian democracy or American democracy may not suit us all. I am not even convinced that ‘democracy’ for all the words spent on it is the best guide to leading an ethical life in our time of troubles. That is the question I am addressing in my work-in-progress’ tentatively titled, ‘Life After Western Democracy.’ More on that project soon.

But we should all at least have a conversation about it. We should all at least try to make a symphony of civilizations, not a clash of civilizations. What do you think?

4. Using history to live mindfully in the present.

I think most days that we are living through a crisis that the world has not seen for 100 years. But then I remind myself, that nothing is but thinking makes it so. Crises, turning points, unprecedented events and all the other history-making terms are staged in the stories we tell ourselves. Now and then, we need to detach from these stories, however compleeling and truthful, and observe the earth as it is, as it abideth forever.

In Earth Transformed, Peter Frankopan devotes a chapter to discussing the Global Crisis that some historians have argued was caused by the Little Ice Age of the period centred on the 1600s. While there is some merit in the argument that climate created a global crisis, there are also qualifications. Frankopan remarks wisely that it is important to avoid the

“irresistible temptation of the historian to identify watershed moments, to pinpoint events that can be described as turning points.” (Frankopan, Earth Transformed, p. 416)

It is good advice. Mindful history must observe the pattern seeking machine of the mind at work, finding patterns and crises and turning points in the chaos of history.

5. Fragments from the Burning Archive

My podcast refers to Mencius and the idea of Menbin in Chinese political thought.

But I have yet to read Mencius directly, so instead of his texts, I offer this remarkable fragment from a poem that appeared in Frankopan, The Earth Transformed (p. 290).

In 1127 Jurchen nomads sacked the city of Kaifeng, leading to the collapse and flight of the Song dynasty. Emperor Huizong was deported to Manchuria. Empress Zhu was raped, held captive, and marched through the snow to the deep north. She lamented,

“Once I lived in heaven above, in pearl palaces and jade towers; now I live among grass and brambles, my blue robes soaked in tears. I hate the drift of snow.”

But the poet Li Qingzhao, while lamenting the disaster, reproached sternly the Song dynasts for not learning the lessons of history,

And you should’ve been more cautious,
Better educated by the past.
The ancient bamboo books of history
Were there for you to study.
But you didn’t see.

6. What surprised me most this week.

A surprising fact I learned this week was the high levels of dissatisfaction with democracy in America and other Western states. There are many surveys of this kind, but the Pew Research Centre provides a regular cross-national survey. Its 2021 survey found that in 7 of 17 states more respondents were dissatisfied than satisfied with how their democracies worked. In America, 85 % of Americans believed either major changes or complete reforms of the system were required.

What is also striking is that most people doubt that political system is capable of responding. 58 % of respondents were not confident the political system can achieve change. This may point to a legitimation crisis within democracies. And then a failing war, collapsing banks, and bailouts for wealthy irresponsible depositors will only make things worse.

Perhaps the extraordinary riots in France over the last week or two may be coming to more countries soon.

7. Works-in-progress and published content

My second paid-subscribers-only post will appear on Monday 27 March. It will explore an idea that Australia could pivot its foreign policy (and the mindset of its elites) from Washington to Delhi. It is a bit of a thought experiment. Please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to read the full piece.

This week my works-in-progress and published content were:

on the podcast I actually published three episodes in eight days, Episode 91. Democracy’s Discontents, Episode 92. India, Mother of Democracy, and Episode 93. How Healthy is Western Democracy? Some Views from China
On the YouTube Channel I published videos:
- Five Top Super Skills of History, or how to stay calm and carry on when doomscrolling gets you down , and
- India, Mother of Democracy.
The video of the Five Top Super Skills of History previews my course. I had some technical difficulties with sound recording. My apologies. I’d love to get your feedback on the actual content, it so please check it out despite the gremlins.
I developed further materials for both my online courses on history and writing, and started to set up my academy on LearnWorlds.
I edited some more of Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Bureaucrat, and drafted some of my book on life after Western democracy.
I edited about one sixth of the transcripts of my podcasts over the last twelve months on the Russia-Ukraine-NATO War
I completed compiling my poems over the last 3 to 4 years into a new collection that I will be publishing, Cantos from a Cage. These include my poems of the lockdown experience.

Let me know if there are issues or topics you would like me to talk about on the podcast or the YouTube channel or even on the Sub-Stack.

Burning Archive