World Crisis: Social Fragmentation, Part Two, Is Peter Turchin right about social collapse?
Elites vs the Rest, or Towards a Society of Islands
The social drama of the World Crisis is often narrated against the theme of polarisation or the conflict between elites and ordinary people. But there is also conflict within elites for power, status and media share.
There have been fundamental changes of social experience over the last 150 years, such as wealth, population ageing, changes in fertility and families, increased higher education, and reduced commonality of religious or cultural beliefs. These changes generate and amplify social fragmentation or differentiation, which in turn is the engine of many problems experienced as integral to the ‘polycrisis,’ including conflicts within the elites themselves.
Peter Turchin has popularised the idea that social or political collapses are caused by competition between elites. I reflect on his ideas in this essay.
This post is the fifth in a series of articles beginning with an overview on the World Crisis or Polycrisis, then followed by essays on seven drivers of the ‘crisis’:
Social Fragmentation, Part I and Part II
Cultural Decay
War
Economy
Environmental Threat.
In two weeks, I will publish the third essay on social fragmentation and how too much change might overwhelm our habits of continuity. Please upgrade your subscription in order to read all of these articles, and all of my content.