Cut and pasted from Zhang Weiying's recent piece on the stimulus...
"I must stress that the currently widespread "Thucydides Trap" mindset is a profoundly destructive notion that could mislead the country. We must free ourselves from this intellectual constraint. The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE), a conflict between the Athenian and Spartan alliances, was not the inevitable result of the rise of a new power, as Thucydides claimed. The war was not inevitable or natural. Instead, it resulted from political leaders' arrogance, resentment, and vengeance-driven attitudes and their ignorance, misjudgments, and third-party provocations. Athens’ excessive greed and unrealistic goals ultimately led to its catastrophic failure in the war.
Donald Kagan, a Yale University scholar, conducted in-depth research on the Peloponnesian War. He found that the politicians involved lacked foresight, mistakenly believing they could achieve significant gains at low costs. They relied on past experiences to craft strategies without adequately accounting for the risks of misjudgments and miscalculations, nor did they prepare contingency plans. Thus, the war's outbreak was neither inevitable nor the result of irresistible forces; it arose from specific decisions made in a particular context.
Similarly, I believe that our current and future international environment depends on our choices and actions."
Thanks for this. I was never able to get more than halfway through Allisons's idiotic take on the matter. I'm American, living in Wuhan, not an academic in any form, married to a Professor of Chinese History at a national university. My study of China history came through the back door, so to speak. My interest in the person sparked a fascination with the topic, and here I am. I spend most of my time traveling in country. Traveling in China is immersing oneself in its history.
I hope your efforts to shine a light on China, both historically and currently, will awaken feelings of justified hope for the many people who despair of the rot affecting Western society. But it won't be easy (is it ever?) to change minds that have been fed on decades of anti-China propaganda. To take but one example, explaining to people that China is a democracy not a dictatorship, will usually bring an incredulous response. Yet the Constitution of China is there for anyone to read. They hold national elections more often than we do in the West (every three years), and the supposed tyrant at the top can be removed from office on 24 hours notice by a simple majority in the National People's Congress, the highest law-making organ in China. The primary difference between Chinese democracy and that practiced by the West is that their democracy isn't adversarial. They don't have the enormous waste and conflict that comes from having competing political parties vying for supremacy. And that, perhaps more than any other organizational reason, is why China has been able to focus on making things better for their people. Which they have achieved with a speed unseen in all of human history.
We are shallow to say China is an “emerging power”. China remembers greatness and tragedy, and they learned from both.
China is returning to the Ming Dynasty when China ruled their part of the world, not through military force, but by innovating new products and through free trade and financial management.
The Manchurian Qing Dynasty replaced the Ming. The Qing was followed by western imperialism then the rule by Stalin’s servant, Mao
For the first time in 350 years, we see China ruled by Chinese.
They return to a norm and that norm is the Ming Dynasty. Prepare for a world dominated by Chinese innovations and Chinese merchants and manufacturers.
Great post, Jeff. Philosophy shapes history. While Socrates was long considered the father of Western civilization; Confucius is generally regarded as the father of Eastern (Chinese) Civilization.
Yes and Yes! I will have more news about both early in the new year. I am in a bit of a scramble finishing up before Christmas. So, I will announce repeat and how to get recording in the new year. Thank you
I reject Thucydides Trap on its linguistic Cause-Effect Complex Equivalence face. Let's start there. You can reframe the argument without any domain experience or circumstantial understanding.
This is an incredible piece of work. Thank you. I’ve been more aware of the obsessive anti Russian hate the americans are pushing, but I didn’t know the degree to which it’s also applied to China. And the backstory of yet another american betrayal. Looking forward to part 2 and ordering some of those books you recommended.
Cut and pasted from Zhang Weiying's recent piece on the stimulus...
"I must stress that the currently widespread "Thucydides Trap" mindset is a profoundly destructive notion that could mislead the country. We must free ourselves from this intellectual constraint. The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE), a conflict between the Athenian and Spartan alliances, was not the inevitable result of the rise of a new power, as Thucydides claimed. The war was not inevitable or natural. Instead, it resulted from political leaders' arrogance, resentment, and vengeance-driven attitudes and their ignorance, misjudgments, and third-party provocations. Athens’ excessive greed and unrealistic goals ultimately led to its catastrophic failure in the war.
Donald Kagan, a Yale University scholar, conducted in-depth research on the Peloponnesian War. He found that the politicians involved lacked foresight, mistakenly believing they could achieve significant gains at low costs. They relied on past experiences to craft strategies without adequately accounting for the risks of misjudgments and miscalculations, nor did they prepare contingency plans. Thus, the war's outbreak was neither inevitable nor the result of irresistible forces; it arose from specific decisions made in a particular context.
Similarly, I believe that our current and future international environment depends on our choices and actions."
It's a good read over at Pekingnology....
Thank you. This is so insightful.
Thanks for this. I was never able to get more than halfway through Allisons's idiotic take on the matter. I'm American, living in Wuhan, not an academic in any form, married to a Professor of Chinese History at a national university. My study of China history came through the back door, so to speak. My interest in the person sparked a fascination with the topic, and here I am. I spend most of my time traveling in country. Traveling in China is immersing oneself in its history.
I'll be watching for more.
I hope your efforts to shine a light on China, both historically and currently, will awaken feelings of justified hope for the many people who despair of the rot affecting Western society. But it won't be easy (is it ever?) to change minds that have been fed on decades of anti-China propaganda. To take but one example, explaining to people that China is a democracy not a dictatorship, will usually bring an incredulous response. Yet the Constitution of China is there for anyone to read. They hold national elections more often than we do in the West (every three years), and the supposed tyrant at the top can be removed from office on 24 hours notice by a simple majority in the National People's Congress, the highest law-making organ in China. The primary difference between Chinese democracy and that practiced by the West is that their democracy isn't adversarial. They don't have the enormous waste and conflict that comes from having competing political parties vying for supremacy. And that, perhaps more than any other organizational reason, is why China has been able to focus on making things better for their people. Which they have achieved with a speed unseen in all of human history.
Looking forward to your essays!
We are shallow to say China is an “emerging power”. China remembers greatness and tragedy, and they learned from both.
China is returning to the Ming Dynasty when China ruled their part of the world, not through military force, but by innovating new products and through free trade and financial management.
The Manchurian Qing Dynasty replaced the Ming. The Qing was followed by western imperialism then the rule by Stalin’s servant, Mao
For the first time in 350 years, we see China ruled by Chinese.
They return to a norm and that norm is the Ming Dynasty. Prepare for a world dominated by Chinese innovations and Chinese merchants and manufacturers.
Great post, Jeff. Philosophy shapes history. While Socrates was long considered the father of Western civilization; Confucius is generally regarded as the father of Eastern (Chinese) Civilization.
What a fascinating article. Beautifully presented in such a coherent way even a thicko like me can get a grasp on the subject.
I’m so disappointed I missed your live event. Will you do another? Will you make the recording available?
Yes and Yes! I will have more news about both early in the new year. I am in a bit of a scramble finishing up before Christmas. So, I will announce repeat and how to get recording in the new year. Thank you
This is a superb piece in all aspects.
thank you
Refreshing to read your insights. I have thought in a similar vein for many years and most particularly since I visited China in 2013.
This is depth psychology, cultural studies, geopolitics & history in sync. Important work, thank you Jeff
Interesting you say alleged genocides.
Well, the Chinese government imagined that a world other than one led by the USA would be somehow better for China, so:
let them have it.
I reject Thucydides Trap on its linguistic Cause-Effect Complex Equivalence face. Let's start there. You can reframe the argument without any domain experience or circumstantial understanding.
This is an incredible piece of work. Thank you. I’ve been more aware of the obsessive anti Russian hate the americans are pushing, but I didn’t know the degree to which it’s also applied to China. And the backstory of yet another american betrayal. Looking forward to part 2 and ordering some of those books you recommended.